Thursday, October 13, 2005

So when is the world oil peak going to happen?

One of the primary issues with the use of oil is how long it will last. Currently it is estimated by many that we will soon reach the point at which half of the usable petroleum in the world will have been consumed. This point is known as the oil peak. This point has already been by-passed with oil in the United States in 1970 as predicted by L. King Hubbard. In terms of world oil it is difficult to get more than an estimate for the year of the oil peak. Amount of oil a company or country has is often priviledged information and if such estimates are provided there is no guarantee of validity. Here is a list of predicted oil peak years with their predictor:

Person (Year Published) Projected Date
Edwards (1997) 2000-2020
Bartlett (2000) LOW 2004
Bakthtiari (2004) 2006-2007
MacKenzie (1996) LOW 2007
Simmons (2003) 2007-2009
Skrebowski (2004) After 2007
Deffeyes (2003) Before 2009
Goodstein (2004) Before 2010
Campbell (2003) Around 2010
World Energy Council (2003) After 2010
Laherrere (2003) 2010-2020
MacKenzie (1996) HIGH 2014
EIA (Nominal) (2000) 2016
Bartlett (2000) MID 2019
CERA (2004) After 2020
Shell (2003) 2025 or Later
Bartlett (2000) HIGH 2030
USGS (2000) 2037
Lynch (2003) No Visible Peak

Names and dates from:
Bartlett, A.A. 2000. An Analysis of U.S. and World Oil Production Patterns Using Hubbert-Style Curves. Mathematical Geology, Vol. 32, No. 1
Hirsch, R.L. 2005. Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management. EnergyBulletin.net (Available Online)
Wood, J.H., G.R. Long, and D.F. Morehouse. 2004. Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios. Department of Energy Energy Information Administration. (Available Online)

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