'On Oil Supply, Opinions Aren't Scarce' by Joseph Nocera

In the oil peak debate, there are two view points: "peakists" who advocate that there will be an oil peak, and proponents of that view who argue that a world wide energy crisis is far off in the future. Here is a quick comparison of these endpoints based upon the information from this article.

"Peakist" vs Nonpeakist
Essential Viewpoint
-We are already in a serious energy crisis
-The peak of usable oil will occur soon (early this century)
-Many believe that we cannot easily replace the energy need filled by oil
-We are not in an energy crisis but it may occur way into the future
-An oil peak is not immanent in the near future
-As supplies of oil diminish and its price increases not only will people change their energy use habits but also innovation will increase to get previously unavailable deposits
-Both agree that demand of oil has caught up with supply
Groups Often Associated
-Geologists
-Economists
Chief Proponents
-Matthew R. Simmons, Simmons & Company
-Chevron
-Daniel Yergin, Cambridge Energy Research Associates
-Michael C. Lynch
-Exxon Mobil

As with many issues there are many people whose view lies in between these endpoints. So why are there so many opinions on this subject? According to Nocera there are three reasons:
1. Oil is difficult to measure as it is confined underground. There is much uncertainty how much there exists.
2. The oil industry (ie. Countries, companies, etc) lacks in truthfulness/accuracy/openness in reporting how much oil there exists in their known reserves.
3. Enormous divergence of opinion exists throughout this subject.

Final thoughts from Nocera
-"What I do know - what we all know - is that oil is a finite resource. Surely, the peakists are right about that. What I also know is historically, the economists have generally been right about the price of oil has wound up fixing the problem."

So as with many other issues today there is a great split in what the truth may be. I am somewhere in between these groups as I understand the limitations of our resources of oil and the limitations of extracting it. I also understand that in our world today oil is vitally important in the economics of the world and as a result important to providing necessities and goods around the world. A lack of oil or even a great increase in its price could quickly have disastrous results. However it is the price which drives change in many cases and when oil is no longer a feasible energy source another source will have to replace it. With this in mind I feel we should reconsider our current oil use in order to facilitate a smoother transition to alternative energies (renewable and nonrenewable) instead of squandering it as its current rate of consumption. If we do not we are headed for a shock once the oil peak is reached.

Article is available through The New York Times Website for a fee. It was published Septemeber 10, 2005.

So when is the world oil peak going to happen?

One of the primary issues with the use of oil is how long it will last. Currently it is estimated by many that we will soon reach the point at which half of the usable petroleum in the world will have been consumed. This point is known as the oil peak. This point has already been by-passed with oil in the United States in 1970 as predicted by L. King Hubbard. In terms of world oil it is difficult to get more than an estimate for the year of the oil peak. Amount of oil a company or country has is often priviledged information and if such estimates are provided there is no guarantee of validity. Here is a list of predicted oil peak years with their predictor:

Person (Year Published) Projected Date
Edwards (1997) 2000-2020
Bartlett (2000) LOW 2004
Bakthtiari (2004) 2006-2007
MacKenzie (1996) LOW 2007
Simmons (2003) 2007-2009
Skrebowski (2004) After 2007
Deffeyes (2003) Before 2009
Goodstein (2004) Before 2010
Campbell (2003) Around 2010
World Energy Council (2003) After 2010
Laherrere (2003) 2010-2020
MacKenzie (1996) HIGH 2014
EIA (Nominal) (2000) 2016
Bartlett (2000) MID 2019
CERA (2004) After 2020
Shell (2003) 2025 or Later
Bartlett (2000) HIGH 2030
USGS (2000) 2037
Lynch (2003) No Visible Peak

Names and dates from:
Bartlett, A.A. 2000. An Analysis of U.S. and World Oil Production Patterns Using Hubbert-Style Curves. Mathematical Geology, Vol. 32, No. 1
Hirsch, R.L. 2005. Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management. EnergyBulletin.net (Available Online)
Wood, J.H., G.R. Long, and D.F. Morehouse. 2004. Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios. Department of Energy Energy Information Administration. (Available Online)

'Energy from Fossil Fuels' by M. King Hubbert

So how did the concern about a worldwide oil peak come about? While it did not immediately get people concerned, this article by M. King Hubbert is regarded as one of the first to discuss the matter. In 1949 Hubbert not only attempted to evaluate the fossil fuels available in the United States and around the world, but he also saw that they were limited. Petroleum was his primary focus and in later articles he perfected the "Hubbert curve" from which he used to predict the peak oil production in the United States for 1969. (Remarkably he was only a year off as the peak was reached in 1970.)

This article is a good starting place from which to get aquanted with basics of fossil fuels and how much of each there are. Yes, it is old and there has been much work done since. However, it gives you the basic perspective of which to begin your approach to this issue. (Plus it is better written than many other papers published today.)

This article was published in Science February 1, 1949, Vol. 109. If you have access to publications online through a school district or university, you can probably access this article. Otherwise you have to find a library (probably a university library) who has a physical copy.