'On Oil Supply, Opinions Aren't Scarce' by Joseph Nocera

In the oil peak debate, there are two view points: "peakists" who advocate that there will be an oil peak, and proponents of that view who argue that a world wide energy crisis is far off in the future. Here is a quick comparison of these endpoints based upon the information from this article.

"Peakist" vs Nonpeakist
Essential Viewpoint
-We are already in a serious energy crisis
-The peak of usable oil will occur soon (early this century)
-Many believe that we cannot easily replace the energy need filled by oil
-We are not in an energy crisis but it may occur way into the future
-An oil peak is not immanent in the near future
-As supplies of oil diminish and its price increases not only will people change their energy use habits but also innovation will increase to get previously unavailable deposits
-Both agree that demand of oil has caught up with supply
Groups Often Associated
-Geologists
-Economists
Chief Proponents
-Matthew R. Simmons, Simmons & Company
-Chevron
-Daniel Yergin, Cambridge Energy Research Associates
-Michael C. Lynch
-Exxon Mobil

As with many issues there are many people whose view lies in between these endpoints. So why are there so many opinions on this subject? According to Nocera there are three reasons:
1. Oil is difficult to measure as it is confined underground. There is much uncertainty how much there exists.
2. The oil industry (ie. Countries, companies, etc) lacks in truthfulness/accuracy/openness in reporting how much oil there exists in their known reserves.
3. Enormous divergence of opinion exists throughout this subject.

Final thoughts from Nocera
-"What I do know - what we all know - is that oil is a finite resource. Surely, the peakists are right about that. What I also know is historically, the economists have generally been right about the price of oil has wound up fixing the problem."

So as with many other issues today there is a great split in what the truth may be. I am somewhere in between these groups as I understand the limitations of our resources of oil and the limitations of extracting it. I also understand that in our world today oil is vitally important in the economics of the world and as a result important to providing necessities and goods around the world. A lack of oil or even a great increase in its price could quickly have disastrous results. However it is the price which drives change in many cases and when oil is no longer a feasible energy source another source will have to replace it. With this in mind I feel we should reconsider our current oil use in order to facilitate a smoother transition to alternative energies (renewable and nonrenewable) instead of squandering it as its current rate of consumption. If we do not we are headed for a shock once the oil peak is reached.

Article is available through The New York Times Website for a fee. It was published Septemeber 10, 2005.