'On Oil Supply, Opinions Aren't Scarce' by Joseph Nocera

In the oil peak debate, there are two view points: "peakists" who advocate that there will be an oil peak, and proponents of that view who argue that a world wide energy crisis is far off in the future. Here is a quick comparison of these endpoints based upon the information from this article.

"Peakist" vs Nonpeakist
Essential Viewpoint
-We are already in a serious energy crisis
-The peak of usable oil will occur soon (early this century)
-Many believe that we cannot easily replace the energy need filled by oil
-We are not in an energy crisis but it may occur way into the future
-An oil peak is not immanent in the near future
-As supplies of oil diminish and its price increases not only will people change their energy use habits but also innovation will increase to get previously unavailable deposits
-Both agree that demand of oil has caught up with supply
Groups Often Associated
-Geologists
-Economists
Chief Proponents
-Matthew R. Simmons, Simmons & Company
-Chevron
-Daniel Yergin, Cambridge Energy Research Associates
-Michael C. Lynch
-Exxon Mobil

As with many issues there are many people whose view lies in between these endpoints. So why are there so many opinions on this subject? According to Nocera there are three reasons:
1. Oil is difficult to measure as it is confined underground. There is much uncertainty how much there exists.
2. The oil industry (ie. Countries, companies, etc) lacks in truthfulness/accuracy/openness in reporting how much oil there exists in their known reserves.
3. Enormous divergence of opinion exists throughout this subject.

Final thoughts from Nocera
-"What I do know - what we all know - is that oil is a finite resource. Surely, the peakists are right about that. What I also know is historically, the economists have generally been right about the price of oil has wound up fixing the problem."

So as with many other issues today there is a great split in what the truth may be. I am somewhere in between these groups as I understand the limitations of our resources of oil and the limitations of extracting it. I also understand that in our world today oil is vitally important in the economics of the world and as a result important to providing necessities and goods around the world. A lack of oil or even a great increase in its price could quickly have disastrous results. However it is the price which drives change in many cases and when oil is no longer a feasible energy source another source will have to replace it. With this in mind I feel we should reconsider our current oil use in order to facilitate a smoother transition to alternative energies (renewable and nonrenewable) instead of squandering it as its current rate of consumption. If we do not we are headed for a shock once the oil peak is reached.

Article is available through The New York Times Website for a fee. It was published Septemeber 10, 2005.

So when is the world oil peak going to happen?

One of the primary issues with the use of oil is how long it will last. Currently it is estimated by many that we will soon reach the point at which half of the usable petroleum in the world will have been consumed. This point is known as the oil peak. This point has already been by-passed with oil in the United States in 1970 as predicted by L. King Hubbard. In terms of world oil it is difficult to get more than an estimate for the year of the oil peak. Amount of oil a company or country has is often priviledged information and if such estimates are provided there is no guarantee of validity. Here is a list of predicted oil peak years with their predictor:

Person (Year Published) Projected Date
Edwards (1997) 2000-2020
Bartlett (2000) LOW 2004
Bakthtiari (2004) 2006-2007
MacKenzie (1996) LOW 2007
Simmons (2003) 2007-2009
Skrebowski (2004) After 2007
Deffeyes (2003) Before 2009
Goodstein (2004) Before 2010
Campbell (2003) Around 2010
World Energy Council (2003) After 2010
Laherrere (2003) 2010-2020
MacKenzie (1996) HIGH 2014
EIA (Nominal) (2000) 2016
Bartlett (2000) MID 2019
CERA (2004) After 2020
Shell (2003) 2025 or Later
Bartlett (2000) HIGH 2030
USGS (2000) 2037
Lynch (2003) No Visible Peak

Names and dates from:
Bartlett, A.A. 2000. An Analysis of U.S. and World Oil Production Patterns Using Hubbert-Style Curves. Mathematical Geology, Vol. 32, No. 1
Hirsch, R.L. 2005. Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management. EnergyBulletin.net (Available Online)
Wood, J.H., G.R. Long, and D.F. Morehouse. 2004. Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios. Department of Energy Energy Information Administration. (Available Online)

'Energy from Fossil Fuels' by M. King Hubbert

So how did the concern about a worldwide oil peak come about? While it did not immediately get people concerned, this article by M. King Hubbert is regarded as one of the first to discuss the matter. In 1949 Hubbert not only attempted to evaluate the fossil fuels available in the United States and around the world, but he also saw that they were limited. Petroleum was his primary focus and in later articles he perfected the "Hubbert curve" from which he used to predict the peak oil production in the United States for 1969. (Remarkably he was only a year off as the peak was reached in 1970.)

This article is a good starting place from which to get aquanted with basics of fossil fuels and how much of each there are. Yes, it is old and there has been much work done since. However, it gives you the basic perspective of which to begin your approach to this issue. (Plus it is better written than many other papers published today.)

This article was published in Science February 1, 1949, Vol. 109. If you have access to publications online through a school district or university, you can probably access this article. Otherwise you have to find a library (probably a university library) who has a physical copy.

Fossil Fuels in Ohio

All three major types of fossil fuels, coal, oil, and natural gas, are found in Ohio.

Coal is concentrated in the east central and southeast portions of the state. It is extracted from either open pit or underground mines. Since coal production began in 1880 more than 3.4 billion tons of coal have been mined in Ohio. Former uses of coal included home heating and cooking, blast furnaces, steam mills, and saw mills. With the invention and growth of coal burning power plants, the primary use of coal changed. Currently 90% of the coal mined in Ohio and 80% nationally is used for this purpose. In 1970 with the addition of new regulations and permits, and the passing of the Clean Air Act coal prices soared 470% to its current price of $25/ton in Ohio. Ohio coal has a higher sulfur content and thus, emits more into the atmosphere contributing to acid rain. These factors reduced coal production 51% and along with new technologies have greatly decreased the number of operating underground mines and coal miners in general. As of 1996 there were only 10 underground mines in Ohio.

Coal mining causes several negative effects including choked streams from excessive sediment, acid mine drainage, and subsidence. Excessive sediment from the processing and mining of the rock are easily eroded and transported into streams with rain and flood events. This occurs because the material is not suitable for vegetation that would prevent this process. Thus, streams are dammed and back up causing the formation of new wetlands. Acid mine drainage occurs when the pyrite in coal is exposed to air causing it to oxidize. The result is water introduced with sulfuric acid that can greatly alter its pH from a natural 7 to a deadly 1 or 2. Subsidence occurs when an underground mine collaspes. It can cause problems from the ground collapsing to ruining building foundations to disruption of underground utilities. There are several towns in Ohio who have extensive accounts of damage due to this and even I-70, the major east-west highway though Ohio, has experienced problems due to subsidence.

In addition to vast coal resources Ohio also has a number of oil and gas fields. These occur in the eastern half of the state plus in an arc from Mercer to Lucas Counties in northwestern Ohio. The first wells were drilled over 150 years ago in Mecca Township in Mercer County. Adeptly named Mecca many people visited who had hopes to strike it rich. Like many other oil boom towns in Ohio once the oil wells dried up in Mecca the people left. In 1884 the most significant oil-and-gas boom occurred along the arc in northwestern Ohio from the Trenton Limestone in the Lime-Indiana oil-and-gas fields. Over this period of time 280 million barrels of oil and 2 trillion cubic feet of gas were extracted. During the peak of this boom in 1896 23 million barrels were produced. This deposit made Ohio the top oil-and-gas producing state from 1895 to 1903. Currently Ohio has 60,000 wells of which most are "stripper" wells. These pump less than 10 barrels of oil per day. Also most production now occurs in the eastern third of the state.

Source
Ohio Division of Geological Survey (Department of Natural Resources)
GeoFacts No.12
GeoFacts No. 14
GeoFacts No. 15
Oil and Gas Fields Map of Ohio

What Is The Deal With This Blog

Basically this blog is a journal of the notes I take in a class about the sustainability of fossil fuels. Being the thorough student I am not taking what the profs and other students say for granted and will be adding information from websites, books, and other media to present a wider scope of this subject. Like many other people I have heard all sorts of opinions and facts (or "facts") about the availability of fossil fuels and how long we have before they are no longer a viable energy source. Also included in the course is an examination of alternative energy like hydrogen and nuclear and whether these are viable replacements to our current system. Other topics could include world population growth, and the economics and politics at work in this realm. Hopefully at the end of this quarter this blog will show some sort of conclusion as to what the situation really is with fossil fuels.

Day 1: The Basics of Fossil Fuels

As there is a mountain of information that could be considered "the basics of fossil fuels" this post will evolve as I collect more information.

Fossil fuels are hydrocarbon deposits formed from living matter of a previous geologic time. Fossil fuels include natural gas, petroleum and coal. Much of the fossil fuels used today were deposited in the geologic period called the Carboniferious (also known as Mississippian and Pennsylvanian) roughly 345 to 280 million years ago.

Fossil fuels are the principal energy source in the United States and in many other places in the world. These fuels are essentially stored solar energy that produce great amounts of energy. In combusting fossil fuels their energy is released to power homes, cars and more. Fossil fuels also are used in the production of plastics, chemicals, and more. However, there is a finite supply of this valuble resource.

Sources
The American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language 4th Edition. 2000. Houghton Mifflin Co
Keller, E. A. 2000. Environmental Geology 8th Edition. Prentice Hall